PREDICTION LAB

Probability, not promises.

Start with real fixtures and published insights; model probabilities appear only after facts, arbitration and backtesting all pass.

PRE-MATCH PROBABILITIES

Current match probabilities (19)

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Model probabilities appear automatically for Champions League and top-five league fixtures within 48 hours of kick-off and freeze at kick-off; matches with an AI preview include its summary. Probabilities are not betting advice.

Italian Serie A

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina

LIVE 2:2

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Sassuolo38.42%
Draw22.72%
Fiorentina38.86%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
Italian Serie A

Atalanta vs Parma

2 Nov 2026, 19:45

Read the preview →
MODEL PROBABILITY · AI COUNCIL

Pre-match outlook

Atalanta50.41%
Draw22.12%
Parma27.47%

Model probabilities: Atalanta 50.41%, Draw 22.12%, Parma 27.47% (confidence: medium). The model gives a slight edge to Atalanta based on the supplied probabilities.

  • Verified recent-form sample: Atalanta 8 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses); Parma 8 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses).
  • Goals in those samples: Atalanta scored 15 and conceded 17; Parma scored 5 and conceded 14.
  • Head-to-head sample: 5 meetings — Atalanta 2 wins, Parma 2 wins, 1 draw.
  • Match scheduled in Italian Serie A on 2026-11-02T19:45:00.000Z.
Reviewed · model editorial-baseline-v2-calibrated-unpublished
French Ligue 1

Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29

2 Nov 2026, 19:45

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Lorient46.1%
Draw23.61%
Stade Brestois 2930.29%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
English Premier League

Newcastle United vs Everton

2 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Newcastle United40.38%
Draw23.11%
Everton36.51%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
Spanish La Liga

Deportivo La Coruna vs CA Osasuna

2 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Deportivo La Coruna46.72%
Draw23.39%
CA Osasuna29.89%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart

3 Nov 2026, 17:45

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Galatasaray41.67%
Draw23.37%
VfB Stuttgart34.96%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

FC Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

3 Nov 2026, 17:45

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

FC Shakhtar Donetsk49.8%
Draw22.33%
Sporting CP27.87%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid vs FC Bayern Munich

3 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Atletico Madrid48.58%
Draw22.75%
FC Bayern Munich28.67%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa

3 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

FC Barcelona45.48%
Draw23.82%
Aston Villa30.7%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

Bodo Glimt vs LOSC Lille

3 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Bodo Glimt53.42%
Draw21.08%
LOSC Lille25.5%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

Feyenoord vs Inter Milan

3 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Feyenoord44.22%
Draw23.91%
Inter Milan31.87%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

LASK Linz vs Slovan Bratislava

3 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

LASK Linz44.22%
Draw23.91%
Slovan Bratislava31.87%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

Manchester United vs AS Roma

3 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Manchester United25.54%
Draw20.5%
AS Roma53.96%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

Villarreal CF vs Paris Saint Germain

3 Nov 2026, 20:00

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Villarreal CF37.09%
Draw22.47%
Paris Saint Germain40.44%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid

4 Nov 2026, 17:45

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

AEK Athens34.38%
Draw21.96%
Real Madrid43.66%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahce vs Liverpool

4 Nov 2026, 17:45

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Fenerbahce45.48%
Draw23.82%
Liverpool30.7%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
Spanish La Liga

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

FT 2:1

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Athletic Club44.22%
Draw23.91%
Real Sociedad31.87%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
Italian Serie A

Juventus vs Napoli

FT 2:0

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Juventus39.08%
Draw22.85%
Napoli38.07%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
French Ligue 1

Marseille vs Toulouse FC

FT 2:0

MODEL PROBABILITY · RECENT-FORM BASELINE

Pre-match outlook

Marseille42.31%
Draw23.51%
Toulouse FC34.18%

Calculated only from each side's points and goal difference over up to eight recent matches, without written AI analysis. Small samples carry high uncertainty; values freeze at kick-off.

Recent-form baseline v2 · passed backtest gate
VERIFIED FIXTURES

Current priority matches

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PUBLISHED INSIGHTS

Latest match insights

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BASKETBALL · MATCH PREVIEW

Maryland vs Bucknell preview: close matchup after mixed recent form

Maryland and Bucknell meet on 2026-11-03 in an NCAA fixture. Verified samples show both teams with 2 wins and 6 losses in their last 8 listed matches, and Maryland leads the listed head-to-head meetings 5–0. This preview uses only verified facts and does not claim a certain outcome.

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BASKETBALL · MATCH PREVIEW

Preview — Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards (NBA, 2026-11-03)

A fact-based preview ahead of the Orlando–Washington NBA meeting on 2026-11-03, using the latest verified schedule, recent-form and head-to-head records.

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BASKETBALL · MATCH PREVIEW

Preview — Yale University vs Howard Bison (NCAA) — 2026-11-03

This preview uses the latest verified fact pack ahead of the Yale vs Howard NCAA meeting on 2026-11-03. Recent-form samples and direct meetings are summarized; the information is limited and does not imply a certain result.

Read insight →
FOOTBALL · MATCH PREVIEW

Atalanta v Parma — Serie A preview

A concise preview using the latest verified facts on schedule, recent form and head-to-head records. The review does not assume a certain outcome.

Read insight →